EA Fantasy Football

Draft Trends You Need To Know

By Dr. Pesti, EA Expert

The results are in and there are plenty of things to learn from the early drafts that have already taken place. Savvy fantasy owners know the magazines on the racks are out of date almost the moment they hit the shelf, so keeping an eye on early trends is a good way to stay ahead of the curve. One way to do this is to watch a player's Average Draft Position or ADP. You can see who is going earlier than you expected, and who is slipping based on any new information that might have come out in the past few weeks.

The Bad Boys of the NFL

Everyone knows about the legal troubles that follow the players of the NFL around like a black cloud, but the wide receiver position is especially affected this year. Marvin Harrison, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith have all walked on the wrong side of the law to some degree and their values have changed.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith's problems aren't so much with the law, more a problem with the way Ken Lucas looked. The facial rearrangement will cost him a coach imposed two game suspension. Smith still has elite ability when he's out on the field, but losing him for roughly 15% (25% if you factor in the bye week) of your fantasy season is tough to swallow. Even with the suspension Smith has to be considered just outside the elite players at his position. Figure on drafting him somewhere in the fourth round…right around the area you would be targeting receivers like Roy Williams, Santonio Holmes and Anquan Boldin. Smith with a substitute filling in for him for a couple games is still a lot better than many of the options you have after the top tier of players are off the board.

Outcome - He'll drop 5-7 spots in the rankings, but he'll still be a power player when he gets back to business.

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos
It's not like you didn't see this one coming. Marshall has always had problems with the law and this time he got slapped with a three game suspension - although it could have been much worse. Now you have to figure out where to draft him considering you'll be missing him for four games (Suspended for three and another week on bye) or nearly a third of your season. Prior to the suspension he was a safe third round selection, now his stock plummeting. He's still one of the most talented players you'll see fall past the third round and you have to at least consider selecting him ahead of guys like Greg Jennings, Lee Evans and Roddy White.

Outcome - Three games is a big hit, but he's got too much talent to ignore. Try to keep your head above water while he's out and then plug him in and watch him go. He's still a top-25 receiver.

Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
You didn't really think that Marvin had anything to do with the whole car wash thing did you? The legal issues and injury concerns have started to fade away and you are seeing the grossly undervalued "quiet man" of the NFL creeping up the ADP lists. Let's be real clear here…Marvin is still 36 and a far cry from the player he once was, but the man who scored at least 10 times for eight straight seasons is still a fantasy weapon worth owning. Health concerns will keep his value down, but Marvin could easily put up an eight score season if the glue and tape can hold his aging body together.

Outcome - Marvin is movin' on up and his ADP is climbing. He'll be right there ranked among the top -20 receivers.

Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Johnson is a relative angel when compared to the others mentioned above, but his value (and draft position) has taken a hit due to the off-season soap opera. The ankle injury and unexpected surgery has also spooked a lot of owners, keeping Chad's value in check. Clearly a top-10 option when healthy, his ADP is showing he is selected after players like Wes Welker and Plaxico Burress. Someone is bound to take a flier on Johnson in the third round, but it's a much safer pick than you might think.

Outcome - 7-11 will be open for business and will have a chip on his shoulder this year. He'll still be a top-10 option when everything is said and done.

Changing Values in the Backfield

Although you won't see many calls to "911" here, no position sees as many swings in ADP during the preseason as the guys who line up behind the quarterback. A critical mistake here will make for a long season for a fantasy owner, so you gotta stay well ahead of the curve.

Selvin Young, Denver Broncos
Anyone who has been paying attention knows I liked Selvin Young as one of my big sleeper candidates this year, but it appears he will no longer be a diamond in the rough. Rookie Ryan Torain destroyed his elbow and will be out 2-3 months, leaving Young with the starting gig all to himself. Trust me on this…no one will be moving up the boards quicker. Based on ADP Young was the 30th ranked running back, now it's up to you to figure out just how valuable Young truly is with his sleeper status out the window.

Outcome - He's quickly climbing up into the top-25 at the position. Young is still a great value pick if you can get him outside the top-20. Pittman and Andre Hall won't be a factor unless there's an injury.

Thomas Jones, New York Jets
I've liked Jones as an undervalued pick for most of the year but much like Young, his situation has changed. In case you haven't heard (yeah right) there is a certain first ballot Hall Of Fame quarterback running the show in the Big Apple now. Of all of the players around Favre who will see an increase in value, perhaps none benefit more than Jones. Now with a quarterback who has the arm strength to stretch the field, Jones will have a lot more room to operate. In addition, Favre has always liked to use his backs in the passing game and T.J. has the skills to excel there too. Jones is currently the 25th running back off the board based on his ADP, but I expect to see him jump a few spots in the coming weeks.

Outcome - Be careful of Jones. The situation in New York could overinflate his value pretty quickly. He's still got the potential to be a top-20 back, but he might be all sizzle and no steak.

Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Breaking news…Rudi is banged up once again. As if you needed another sign to stay away from the once reliable running back option, Rudi is once again missing practice and preseason games. The team is calling the injury minor, but let's not forget how slow he was to recover from the same kind of injury last year. His ADP is showing Rudi as the 27th running back off the board, so there are still many who believe he is in store for a bounce-back campaign.

Outcome - There are too many warning signs there to be ignored. Clearly there are still some owners out there who think Rudi can still be a fantasy asset. Don't be fooled…he's going to take a lot of fantasy teams down this year.

Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens
It looks like McGahee will be going under the knife for some arthroscopic surgery on his knee that will keep him on the sideline for the next 2-4 weeks. With the decline of the offensive line, the lack of weapons around him and now his health, McGahee is now officially a high risk draft choice. When the news broke Willis was slotted at the 12th running back off the board based on his ADP, but his value is sure to sink like a stone with knee surgery inevitable.

Outcome - Anytime you mention "McGahee" and "knee" in the same sentence there is reason for concern. His week one status is officially at risk and the news of the "minor" surgery is enough to knock him out of the top-15 at the position. Even then it's a buyer beware situation.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
Jonathan Stewart can still make a big splash this season, but there just hasn't been any good news coming out of Panthers camp to this point. When you add that to the fact that DeAngelo Williams came out like a man possessed in their first preseason game and you might have a clear case of an overhyped rookie. Stewart is currently the 29th ranked running back based on his current ADP, so fantasy owners are quickly cooling on the rookie's prospects.

Outcome - It seems like people are jumping off the bandwagon quickly, bringing Stewart into the sleeper conversation. I'm still looking to buy, despite the quiet preseason.

Author's Bio - Jason Ostresh

Jason Ostresh has been with EA Tiburon since 1999 and is currently a Designer on EA Fantasy Football. Also known as "Dr. Pesti," Jason has been a fantasy football owner since 1992. Comments or Questions? Email us at fantasy@ea.com

Important Dates

07/16 - Live Draft Tracker available on Xbox LIVE™ and PLAYSTATION®Network

09/03 - Prize Eligible Registration Cut-off

09/04 - Live Score Tracker available on Xbox LIVE™ and PLAYSTATION®Network

09/04 - Start of Pro Season

10/22 - Midseason League Drafts Begin

11/02 - Midseason League Scoring Begins

11/27 - Trade Deadline

12/06 - Waiver Deadline